Twenty-one hours of face-to-face talks in Islamabad produced no deal. Hours later, President Trump announced an "effective immediately" US Naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to interdict every vessel that paid Iran's toll. US intelligence confirmed China is preparing to ship air defense systems to Iran within weeks.
“The people who matter most already know you love them. But they'd still like to hear it today.”
“The conversations that change everything rarely feel important while they're happening. Pay attention to the quiet ones.”
“The things that matter most rarely announce themselves. They just show up and wait to see if you're paying attention.”
The oil futures-physical price gap has blown out to $36-40 per barrel, the largest in modern market history, and the weekend's escalation ensures convergence happens upward,…
Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation hearing, originally set for April 16, has been delayed indefinitely as his financial disclosure paperwork remains unsubmitted and Senator…
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.”
— Richard Feynman, Cargo Cult Science (1974 Caltech Commencement)
Choose one belief you hold about your own situation, something you feel certain about, and spend ten minutes looking for evidence that it is wrong. Not playing devil's advocate. Actually searching…
The Fed has a familiar decision tree for inflation data. Core above target: hold or hike. Core below target: cut. The framework has worked for decades. March CPI handed the committee a dataset that doesn't fit the tree: core came in benign at…
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For 41 days, Iran controlled the Strait of Hormuz through mines, tolls, and the simple mathematics of a chokepoint. Ships trickled through at 3.24 per day…
For the first time since the 1979 Islamic revolution, American and Iranian officials are sitting across from each other in a structured diplomatic…
For three days, the market has been trading a ceasefire narrative. Oil dropped 17% on Day 1. Equities rallied 2.5%. The VIX fell below its pre-war level.…
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