Investment & Capital Allocation

Taking multiple mental models approach to business and investment that examines assets and wider ecosystems. Looking through economic, psychological, and strategic lenses to reach conviction. Making very large concentrated bets with high conviction for long-term holding. This requires right intelligence but crucially, right temperament. Separating process from outcome is essential.

Reducing stupidity to create time for intelligent action by avoiding bad outcomes. Building safety nets instead of using single lines. The key question is: how much margin of safety do I have? Angel and venture bets are great because they bound your outcome on downside while offering 10,000x upside. Use leverage based on cautious assumptions and maintain margin of safety.

In venture capital, most returns come from small subset of companies—this is power law distribution. Once you think you're playing lottery, you lose. Power laws only become clear over time and are tough to see in the moment. Because best returns come from power laws, you can't broadly diversify; you need to concentrate where you have conviction.